Making no mistakes
A lot of us spent the 2010s pleading with Leeds United to even vaguely gesture towards being normal, and now here they are at last: officially not a laughing stock.
It must have been the worst feeling. Daniel Farke was already seething about being sent off ahead of playing his old club, Norwich City, in the FA Cup. He was being forced into a seat high in the West Stand where he couldn't influence the game. But at least he could get a good view of it.
Annoyed as he was, there were things that could cheer him up. Winning was one. And good performances by his back-up players. Either way, his mood was not going to be waiting for input from the video analysis guys this weekend. Elevated from his dugout, his impressions were going to be raw.
So it must have been the worst feeling for Ao Tanaka when, after five minutes, he tried to flick a pass under pressure out of the corner of his own penalty area to Dan James, and gave it straight to Ali Ahmed. He'll have been able to picture his manager, up in the stands, sucking in his lips, imagining how a Premier League attacker would have punished that mistake.
Worse was thirty seconds later when Lucas Perri passed a goal-kick to Tanaka and he had to play a foundational pass, a key part of Leeds United's build-up, the lay-off to the left centre-back, usually known as the Gruev to Struijk. Today it was Tanaka to Ethan Ampadu, and Tanaka's pass to Ampadu missed by a clear ten yards. Ao overhit the ball out for a throw-in, a chance for another team another day to launch a long throw and score.
I don't know if Daniel Farke goes in for snap judgements, the way Jose Mourinho claims he only needs ten minutes to judge a player (Kevin De Bruyne, not good enough, Mo Salah, not good enough). But Farke was probably already thinking about how he'd been "furious" with Tanaka for stepping out of the block in the build-up to Liverpool's third goal in December — redeemed when he equalised it — and not forgotten how Tanaka's pass out of the right-back position gave Manchester City the possession they used to score their stoppage time winner a week before that.
But I suspect these are among the moments that explain why Tanaka — brilliant Tanaka, the creative and tenacious midfielder I adore and hoped would blossom into the Premier League player you and me and Declan Rice expected him to be this season — can't get in the team past Ilia Gruev.
It's risk versus reward but not in the traditional sense of giving a playmaker their licence to try things that don't come off. Gruev's superior passing accuracy this season — 89.8 per cent, best in the squad, compared to Tanaka's 83.8 — can be explained by invoking our Bulgarian buddy's safety first approach, suggesting he doesn't try passes that won't come off. Meanwhile Tanaka, venturing to attack, takes more risks and incurs more faults. But that's not necessarily the case. There's a statistical difference between them in short passing, too. On average, Gruev misses 3.8 short passes every 90 minutes. Tanaka misses 5.8.
Add that to the eye test against Manchester City, Liverpool and Norwich, and the picture is not of a mercurial player who is suffering statistically for trying to pull off exciting attacking movements that might lead to a goal. The problem Farke has with Tanaka is that he isn't applying the basics the way Gruev does, and until he does, the potential he could add in the final third isn't worth the risk in our defensive third. A player can miss a pass. Ilia Gruev misses passes. But twice in a minute, near his own goal, inviting pressure from a Championship team? Tanaka must have felt awful, because he must have known the look on Farke's face.
There's more to picking Gruev than Daniel Farke hating fun. It is, unfortunately for Tanaka, one of the key features of this season's attempt to stay in the Premier League. Everyone knows this cliche because everyone knows it's true: teams can't afford to make mistakes at this level because they will be punished, fast as blinking. And Leeds United, this season, have made remarkably few mistakes.
We have a Silly Six to compare Leeds to, the last six teams to come up from the Championship who all went straight back down. In the 'Errors Leading to Goals' stat column, for 2023/24 we have Burnley and Sheffield United making eight each, and Luton making seven. Last season Southampton racked up a phenomenal eighteen, Ipswich did thirteen, Leicester City were on ten. The season before, just for the record, Leeds were second worst in the Premier League on eight. This season? Leeds United have made just three errors leading to goals so far, joint fewest in the division.
| Team | Season | Errors Leading to Goals | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 24/25 | 18 | 0.47 |
| Ipswich Town | 24/25 | 13 | 0.34 |
| Leicester City | 24/25 | 10 | 0.26 |
| Burnley | 23/24 | 8 | 0.21 |
| Leeds United | 22/23 | 8 | 0.21 |
| Sheffield United | 23/24 | 8 | 0.21 |
| Luton Town | 23/24 | 7 | 0.18 |
| Leeds United | 25/26 | 3 | 0.10 |
We can look at 'Errors Leading to Shots', too. Southampton up high with 28, Leicester on 20, Ipswich on 19; Burnley and Luton, eleven; Sheffield United, eight. This season Leeds are on twelve, which feels high, but only four teams have been better (Spurs are on 24, Nottingham Forest on 23, Sunderland — those jammy bastards — on 21).
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